Spotting trends
There are three fundamental elements at the heart of our trend-spotting process:
- Basic Human Needs: Fundamental, rarely-if-ever-changing human needs, wants and desires.
- Macro-Trends: Long-term, macro changes that play out across years or even decades.
- Innovations: The startups, and new products, services, experiences, and campaigns that continuously reset consumer expectations.
The secret ingredient of trends, isn't actually found in these three elements, but in the tension that's created as they interact with each other:
Consumer trends emerge when the relatively constant Basic Human Needs (like community or self-expression) bump up against ever-changing Macro-Trends (climate crisis, aging societies). When this intersection occurs, tension arises. Game-changing Innovations resolve that tension and create new consumer trends and expectations.
By looking at the underlying basic needs and macro-trends behind innovations, we are able to understand on a fundamental level why these products, services, and experiences excite (delight, inspire, and motivate) consumers. This means we can consistently identify the next wave of consumer expectations - and the promising new business opportunities that they present.
Cross-industry mindset
Businesses today act, contribute, and compete in an expectation economy that transcends industries, borders, and price points. You aren't just competing with others in your industry or market - you compete with the best-in-class expectation-setting innovations from any industry or market.
Consumers, unlike business professionals, do not think in industry silos. Instead, once people have experienced TikTok's algorithm, Apple's UX or Patagonia's sustainability standards, they take these experiences and expectations to other industries while it becomes hard for them to tolerate 'normal' (i.e. lower) standards.
Ultimately, developing a cross-industry mindset (a practice that's been at the core of TrendWatching's approach for a long time) and understanding how consumers transfer expectations from one product, service or brand experience to another, will help you to set consumer expectations rather than simply meet them.
Our trend hierarchy
Looking at new, emerging trends is exciting, but to give structure and focus, you need a multi-layered trend framework. This is how we built ours:
Macro-Trends
These are long-term, macro changes that play out across many years or even decades with a large-scale impact. They summarize all major forces across society, technology, economy, ecology, and politics that impact consumer behavior.
Our mega-trends are the building blocks of the consumer arena. They identify the points of tension that macro-trends create when they intersect with consumers' basic needs.
In our database of over 180 sub-trends we spotlight the opportunities and innovations that have arisen from the aforementioned tension. They incite action by highlighting how your brand can start acting on emerging expectations today.
A sprawling research & analysis process
Last but not least: the actual trend and innovation spotting!
For over 20 years now, with help from our researchers, analysts, spotters, endless business sources, technologies and personal encounters, we’ve been immersed in the actual scanning and curating of trends and opportunities. With gusto.
It's given and continues to give us a unique and forever fascinating perspective on how trends evolve, how the niche and the fringe, again and again, become mainstream, and how consumer behavior and innovations spread globally faster than ever before. Even more exciting: the related opportunities this brings to those who are tuned-in, informed and curious.
And yes, there is more to track, more to monitor, more to get inspired by than ever before.
The sheer amount of smart professionals now innovating, the abundance of exciting start-ups, and the countless thinkers sharing their brilliant business insights with the world instantly and relentlessly, from Bulgaria to Indonesia to Canada. Now add in A(G)I, and we're in for a couple of insane years. Again.
Making the most of this 'overwhelm' is a 24/7 endeavor. It's also what we do, live and love.:
